Surrey South West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Surrey South West: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Jeremy Hunt  (CON)
County/Area:Surrey (South East)
Electorate:78,039
Turnout:77.4%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON33,68155.7%
MIN12,09420.0%
LAB7,60612.6%
LIB5,9689.9%
UKIP1,0821.8%
CON Majority21,58735.7%

See overview of other seats in South East.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Surrey South West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Surrey South West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Surrey South West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Surrey South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Surrey South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Surrey South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		NAT
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
WaverleyBramley, Busbridge and Hascombe3,333Surrey South West1,834304142270042202,729
WaverleyChiddingfold and Dunsfold2,929Surrey South West1,498266121690038002,334
WaverleyElstead and Thursley3,002Surrey South West1,456146112230051502,252
WaverleyFarnham Bourne3,103Surrey South West1,719137142220040202,422
WaverleyFarnham Castle2,939Surrey South West1,001380381320066502,459
WaverleyFarnham Firgrove3,036Surrey South West1,358349391280043602,562
WaverleyFarnham Hale and Heath End3,165Surrey South West1,356360296320056202,606
WaverleyFarnham Moor Park3,505Surrey South West1,429392364310072902,945
WaverleyFarnham Shortheath and Boundstone3,107Surrey South West1,166277160280082102,452
WaverleyFarnham Upper Hale3,052Surrey South West1,113324159300086902,495
WaverleyFarnham Weybourne and Badshot Lea3,242Surrey South West1,266341390870043302,517
WaverleyFarnham Wrecclesham and Rowledge3,271Surrey South West1,540353168890057502,725
WaverleyFrensham, Dockenfield and Tilford3,045Surrey South West1,710144111220038702,374
WaverleyGodalming Binscombe3,001Surrey South West1,119502370320037402,397
WaverleyGodalming Central and Ockford3,219Surrey South West1,360576221870051102,755
WaverleyGodalming Charterhouse2,642Surrey South West1,459325187270038802,386
WaverleyGodalming Farncombe and Catteshall3,497Surrey South West1,188542477360043902,682
WaverleyGodalming Holloway3,196Surrey South West1,565350187260039702,525
WaverleyHaslemere Critchmere and Shottermill4,313Surrey South West1,824465605480055603,498
WaverleyHaslemere East and Grayswood4,897Surrey South West2,2733623621200074903,866
WaverleyHindhead3,108Surrey South West1,536188313310042702,495
WaverleyMilford3,007Surrey South West1,367247166790058502,444
WaverleyWitley and Hambledon2,885Surrey South West1,544276143760047202,511
 Total74,494 33,6817,6065,9681,0820012,094060,431

The full details of these calculations are given on the Surrey South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Surrey South West

The new seat of Surrey South West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Surrey South West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		Old Seat CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		NAT
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
WaverleyBramley, Busbridge and Hascombe3,524Surrey South West1,834304142270042202,729
WaverleyChiddingfold and Dunsfold3,013Surrey South West1,498266121690038002,334
WaverleyElstead and Thursley2,908Surrey South West1,456146112230051502,252
WaverleyFarnham Bourne3,129Surrey South West1,719137142220040202,422
WaverleyFarnham Castle3,176Surrey South West1,001380381320066502,459
WaverleyFarnham Firgrove3,310Surrey South West1,358349391280043602,562
WaverleyFarnham Hale and Heath End3,365Surrey South West1,356360296320056202,606
WaverleyFarnham Moor Park3,803Surrey South West1,429392364310072902,945
WaverleyFarnham Shortheath and Boundstone3,165Surrey South West1,166277160280082102,452
WaverleyFarnham Upper Hale3,221Surrey South West1,113324159300086902,495
WaverleyFarnham Weybourne and Badshot Lea3,251Surrey South West1,266341390870043302,517
WaverleyFarnham Wrecclesham and Rowledge3,519Surrey South West1,540353168890057502,725
WaverleyFrensham, Dockenfield and Tilford3,065Surrey South West1,710144111220038702,374
WaverleyGodalming Binscombe3,096Surrey South West1,119502370320037402,397
WaverleyGodalming Central and Ockford3,558Surrey South West1,360576221870051102,755
WaverleyGodalming Charterhouse3,081Surrey South West1,459325187270038802,386
WaverleyGodalming Farncombe and Catteshall3,463Surrey South West1,188542477360043902,682
WaverleyGodalming Holloway3,260Surrey South West1,565350187260039702,525
WaverleyHaslemere Critchmere and Shottermill4,517Surrey South West1,824465605480055603,498
WaverleyHaslemere East and Grayswood4,993Surrey South West2,2733623621200074903,866
WaverleyHindhead3,222Surrey South West1,536188313310042702,495
WaverleyMilford3,157Surrey South West1,367247166790058502,444
WaverleyWitley and Hambledon3,243Surrey South West1,544276143760047202,511
 Total78,039 33,6817,6065,9681,0820012,094060,431

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Surrey South West. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

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